Backgrounder: China’s Blue Dragon Strategy for the Indo-Pacific

 

Backgrounder: China’s Blue Dragon Strategy for the Indo-Pacific

China’s “Blue Dragon” strategy is a comprehensive and multifaceted approach aimed at expanding its influence and strategic reach across the Indo-Pacific region. This strategy, which has significant geopolitical implications, involves a combination of military, economic, and diplomatic maneuvers designed to counterbalance the United States’ Indo-Pacific strategy and assert China’s dominance in key maritime areas.

1. Strategic Objectives and Key Areas

China’s Blue Dragon strategy focuses on three major bodies of water: the East China Sea, the South China Sea, and the Indian Ocean¹. These areas are critical for global trade and regional security, making them prime targets for China’s expansionist policies.

• East China Sea: China has been increasing its military presence and asserting territorial claims, particularly around the Senkaku Islands (known as Diaoyu in China), which are also claimed by Japan².
• South China Sea: This region is central to China’s strategy. China has built and militarized several artificial islands, equipping them with airstrips, radar systems, and missile installations. The “nine-dash line” claim covers approximately 90% of the South China Sea, overlapping with claims from Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan[³][3].
• Indian Ocean: China aims to establish a strategic foothold in the Indian Ocean, with Sri Lanka playing a key role. The island nation is seen as an ideal location for naval bases, providing China with a strategic anchor point to exert pressure on India and enhance its influence throughout the region⁴.

2. Economic and Diplomatic Maneuvers

China’s strategy is not limited to military actions. It also involves significant economic investments and diplomatic efforts to secure its interests.

• Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): Through the BRI, China has invested heavily in infrastructure projects across the Indo-Pacific, including ports, railways, and highways. These investments are designed to create economic dependencies and increase China’s influence over participating countries⁵.
• Debt Diplomacy: By providing loans for infrastructure projects, China has been able to gain leverage over countries that struggle to repay their debts. This has led to situations where countries like Sri Lanka have had to lease strategic assets, such as the Hambantota Port, to China⁶.

3. Military Expansion and Modernization

The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) plays a crucial role in the Blue Dragon strategy. China has been rapidly modernizing its naval capabilities, including the development of aircraft carriers, submarines, and advanced missile systems⁷.

• Aircraft Carriers: China currently operates two aircraft carriers, the Liaoning and the Shandong, with plans for more. These carriers extend China’s reach and project power far beyond its shores.
• Artificial Islands: The militarization of artificial islands in the South China Sea allows China to control key maritime routes and challenge the presence of other navies in the region[³][3].

4. Geopolitical Implications

China’s Blue Dragon strategy has significant implications for regional and global geopolitics.

• US-China Rivalry: The strategy is a direct challenge to the US Indo-Pacific strategy, which aims to contain China’s military expansion and ensure freedom of navigation¹. This rivalry has led to increased military activities and tensions in the region.
• Impact on India: India’s traditional position of non-alignment is being tested as China increases its presence in the Indian Ocean. This could lead to a strategic recalibration by India, potentially aligning more closely with the US and its allies⁴.
• Regional Security: China’s assertive actions have raised concerns among its neighbors, leading to increased military cooperation and alliances aimed at countering China’s influence².

Conclusion

China’s Blue Dragon strategy is a bold and ambitious plan to reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Indo-Pacific. By combining military might, economic investments, and diplomatic efforts, China aims to establish itself as the dominant power in the region. The success of this strategy will depend on how effectively China can navigate the complex web of regional and global politics, and how other countries respond to its assertive actions.