India’s geopolitical rise in context: Regional implications

 India’s geopolitical rise in context: Regional implications

“Europe has to grow out of the mindset that Europe’s problems are the world’s problems, but the world’s problems are not Europe’s problems.” 

Indian Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar made this bold statement at GLOBSEC Bratislava Forum 2022, later quoted by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the 2023 Munich Security Conference. Importantly, the latter re-quote came just before the one-year mark of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and that too from a key representative of the West—Germany. From its G20 presidency to the United States bringing Delhi into its Indo-Pacific defense vision, India is on a geopolitical center stage. Its strategic value for the West is increasing. Regional perceptions are also shifting in its favor: key blocs such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are expanding their partnerships with India and progressively seeking Delhi’s cooperation. 

In isolation, these developments may appear of little consequence. However, India’s growing geopolitical importance has come at the expense of other key players in the region such as China and Pakistan. Unfortunately, these consequences are not being adequately considered by global policymakers. To protect their interests and their relevance in the West and the region, China and Pakistan will respond by adjusting their strategic calculi, and these developments need to be better understood so the international community can make informed decisions when engaging with India and Asia. 

While not zero-sum, India’s gain in geopolitical leverage—if blindly embraced by the international community—could escalate tensions in the region as opposed to promoting stability. Western goals for a “free and open Indo-Pacific,” as envisioned by those increasingly seeking India’s support, are thus at risk of serious backfire.


Putting India’s rise in context

India’s rise is visible in its increased geopolitical relevance both regionally and in the West. For instance, US-India ties are stronger today than ever. The pair have increasingly regarded themselves as “two pillars of a free and open Indo-Pacific.” A rise in strategic importance is evident in various new partnerships in crucial defense areas, many of which have been initiated by the United States. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III’s characterization of these joint initiatives with India as “operat[ing] and coordinat[ing] more closely together than ever” re-affirms this growing significance.

Regionally, India’s mounting influence follows a similar trend. While Indo-Japanese relations have been traditionally strong, new strides in their partnership have been made since last year. India and Japan met last September to increase joint military drills, with the Japanese foreign minister regarding security collaboration with India as “expanding drastically.” Increased defense cooperation initiatives were under discussion last month with Thailand as well. India’s rise in the region’s geopolitical architecture has been marked by invitations to key security discussions too, such as the Pacific leaders’ meet-up, originally scheduled for May 21-22, where India and the United States were the only two external parties asked to join. When announcing the meeting, regional organizers such as Prime Minister James Marape of Papua New Guinea called it a “futuristic meeting of global superpowers,” adding up to the growing recognition around India’s increasing influence.
These developments should concern regional onlookers for two reasons. The first is their timing in the current state of the world, and the second their nature of expansion. India’s rising significance has materialized primarily through defense partnerships. While there have been other areas of cooperation such as on the economic front, the focus for those who see India’s strategic value as rising has been on building a strengthened and more diversified defense architecture with Delhi.

The need for caution over increased defense cooperation becomes clear when coupled with its timing. For China, this comes at a time of the West’s increased concerns over Taiwan. For Pakistan, they come at a time of diminishing significance after the United States’ exit from Afghanistan and Pakistan’s looming political and economic crises. India’s rising importance, for both the West and regional partners, then raises the stakes for China and Pakistan. As Beijing seeks to maintain its stronghold over Taiwan and Pakistan does the same in Kashmir, India’s rising influence could put those interests and their strategic leverage in territorial disputes at risk. 
In a region already suffering from what the United States Institute of Peace terms a “cascading security dilemma” between three nuclear armed powers (China, India, and Pakistan), the international community risks wading into complex geopolitical waters without considering the broader consequences of its actions.