From Arab Spring to HTS takeover: The fall of Assad through unfrozen Syrian civil war

Bashar al-Assad, who inherited Syria from his father Hafez al-Assad, is about to meet the end many dictators have met in the past. Rebels, led by the jihadist force HTS, look certain to capture the Syrian capital Damascus

People gather at Saadallah al-Jabiri Square as they celebrate, after Syria's army command notified officers on Sunday that President Bashar al-Assad's 24-year authoritarian rule has ended, a Syrian officer who was informed of the move told Reuters, following a rapid rebel offensive that took the world by surprise, in Aleppo, Syria. Reuters

The Syrian nation has been at a war with itself for more than 13 years. In a sense the Syrian civil war has been like an unfinished agenda of the Arab Spring — which began with a simple question of livelihood in Tunisia in North Africa and spread to many parts of West Asia.

A 26-year-old Tunisian graduate, Mohammed Bouazizi, had a simple wish — to find a job, failing which he started to sell fruits and vegetables. A police constable asked for bribes telling him that street vending without permit was illegal. When he refused, he was beaten up, his cart taken away. In protest, Bouazizi doused himself in petrol, setting himself alight in December 2010. Public protests erupted and the Tunisian dictator Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, who had ruled the country for more than 23 years, was forced out in 2011.

Syria faced the same issues — unemployment among its youth and corruption in the government, controlled by the Assad family. Peaceful protests started in Syria in 2011. Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president, responded with brutal repression. He, anyway, ruled Syria with an iron hand.

The Assads of Syria — 1971 to 2024?

The al-Assad family has controlled Syria since 1971, when Hafez al-Assad established a totalitarian regime under the Ba’ath Party. Bashar succeeded Hafez upon his death in 2000.

The first signs of peaceful Arab Spring giving way to armed revolt were seen in Deraa in 2011. In a year’s time, Syria was in a full-fledged civil war, with several areas with Aleppo as the focal point witnessing serious fighting.

Around the same time, the Syrian army, officially called the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), saw mass defections, with groups consolidating under the banner of Free Syrian Army. The rebel leadership passed on to jihadist groups, currently led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) — literally, the Organization for the Liberation of Greater Syria — under Abu Mohammad al-Jolani.

The Syrian pie and the piece-takers

In all these 13 years, the Syrian civil war actually never froze. It went on through ebb and flow, with several groups, backed by different parties aiming to deepen their strategic depth, controlling different regions of Syria. This image shared by American political scientist Ian Bremmer a few days ago on X depicts the Syrian pie with at least five claimants with sizable pieces.

Assad’s forces (the Syrian army) occupied the largest chunk. But the HTS rebels have captured Homs, Deraa and on Sunday also claimed the capital Damascus as President Assad fled to an undisclosed location. Besides, the HTS, another Turkey-backed group Syrian National Army (SNA) — the new avatar of the Free Syrian Army of 2011 — occupies large swathes in the northern parts.

Then there is the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish group that worries Turkey, occupying a big chunk in the northeast of the country. And the US is housing its base at Al-Tanf near the tri-junction of Syria, Iraq and Jordan.

With all these players jostling with one another on the Syrian playground, the tectonic motion never stopped. Before the current swift progress made by the HTS, it seemed to be in a state of dullness for four years.

Image posted by American political scientist Ian Bremmer on X shows different armed groups occupying different areas in Syria (Photo: X/@ianbremmer)

The final assault

Suddenly on November 27, the rebels stunned the Assad forces with massive strikes on Aleppo. This turned out to be the countdown for the fall of Assad, who found his support vanishing in the times of critical military care to save his political pulse.

For years, Assad forces were backed by Iran, Iran’s paramilitary proxy Hezbollah and Russia. Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the US and the UK have supported the rebels at different points of time and varying degrees. The current push by the HTS has had the backing of Turkey, which incidentally has declared the group a terrorist organisation officially.

A ‘betrayal’ behind Bashar’s loss?

What turned the fate of Assad is that Russia has been fighting Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine amid a myriad of economic sanctions against the country’s institutions. Hezbollah jumped into the Israel-Hamas war after October 2023 raids carried out by the Palestinian group, killing over 1,200 people and kidnapping more than 250 others from Israeli territories. This war saw Israel inflicting existential blows to Hezbollah, eliminating several of its top decision-makers.

The same war also saw Iran trading blows with Israel and suffering both economic and military losses. But more importantly, while Iran got embroiled in the Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah war, Assad — blessed with a period of comparable lull — appeared absent from the theatre that found Tehran having been cornered. This was seen as “betrayal” by some quarters in Iran, which looked to save its resources for anticipated tough times with Donald Trump’s return to the White House in the US. Assad found no allies to rescue him.

The HTS seized the opportunity, and gained fresh momentum as the rebel forces advanced in territories controlled by Assad’s forces.

Is this the end of the Syrian civil war?

The HTS, as reports say, established new units — Red Bands, Thermal Brigade and Falcon Brigade — for its latest assaults on the Syrian army. The Red Bands are officially called the Asaib al-Hamra and they have been in the vanguard for the HTS in its daytime operations against Assad’s forces.

Asaib al-Hamra has been complemented by the Saraya al-Harari, the Thermal Brigade, during nightimes operations, making significant gains every night against a struggling Syrian army. Interestingly, reports say that these gains night after night were made by some 500-odd rebel fighters equipped with night-vision devices.

There has also been the Kataib Shaheen, the HTS’s Falcon Brigade, to take out heavy regime weaponry across the front lines. This brigade used the HTS’s surprise feat — indigenously produced cruise missiles and drones. Thes missiles have been compared with suicide truck bombs, aided by the HTS’s fleet of reconnaissance drones surveying the air 24/7.

This 13-year Syrian conflict with several forces working in their own domains to oust Assad has seen more than 500,000 losing their lives and more than half the country’s population displaced — over 14 million of the 23 million. However, the HTS control of Damascus and the flight of Assad may not actually end the Syrian civil war as the other armed actors are still occupying various corners of the Syrian theatre.