Is Trump 2.0 making Russia-Ukraine peace talks difficult?

Even though US President-elect Donald Trump has said he would end the war in Ukraine at the earliest, the approach he and his advisers have outlined may end up making peace talks difficult

US President-elect Donald Trump. Source: Reuters | File.

Even as US President-elect Donald Trump has promised to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours, there are indications he may end up becoming an obstacle.

While Trump has not released any concrete plan to end the war, he and his close advisers have presented a broad outline of the incoming administration’s approach. The approach appears set to ruffle feathers in all quarters, whether it’s in Ukraine, Russia, or Europe.

In sharp contrast to the approach of outgoing President Joe Biden and much of Europe, Trump is not keen on support Ukraine to the hilt. Instead, he plans to use military assistance as leverage and force the two sides into a settlement at the earliest irrespective of whom such a settlement favours.

What’s Trump’s plan to end war in Ukraine?

Trump has indicated that he would use his personal relationships with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin along with a carrot and sticks approach to end the war.

Trump said in an interview last year that he would stop military assistance to Ukraine if Zelenskyy would refuse to come to negotiating table and would tell Putin he would flood Ukraine with aid if Russia would refuse to join talks.

“I know Zelenskyy very well and I know Putin very well — even better. And I had a good relationship — very good with both of them. I would tell Zelenskyy, ’no more [assistance]. You got to make a deal’. I would tell Putin, ‘if you don’t make a deal, we’re going to give him a lot. We’re going to [give Ukraine] more than they ever got if we have to’. I will have the deal done in one day — one day,” said Trump in an interview with Fox News.

In Trump’s circle, three plans have been floated for Ukraine, one each by incoming Ukraine envoy Lieutenant General (Retired) Keith Kellogg, incoming Vice President JD Vance, and Richard Grenell, a former acting intelligence chief who is seen as a key adviser of Trump on European matters, according to Reuters.

Kellog’s plan involves freezing the current battle lines and supplying more US weapons to Ukraine only if it agreed to peace talks and warning Russia that the aid to Ukraine would increase if Russia refused to join peace talks, according to the news agency.

The plan puts Nato membership on hold for Ukraine but offers US security guarantees.

Similarly, Vance has called for freezing the battle lines and letting Russia keep Ukrainian territories it controls. He has also called for Nato or European Union (EU) memberships for Ukraine to be off the table to guarantee Russia its neutrality.

Grenell has called for the creation of ‘autonomous zones’ in eastern Ukraine and has said that Nato membership is not favourable.

Trump’s approach essentially means Russian victory

Whether it is Trump’s approach outlined in the Fox interview last year or proposals presented by his advisers, they essentially make way for Russian victory.

All of these plans allow Russia to retain the upper hand in the war and retain territories it has won. At the same time, the plans put membership of Nato or EU, which these blocs as well as Ukraine has repeatedly committed to in recent years, off the table. The membership of these blocs provide Ukraine with military and economic security blanket. Taking these memberships off the table means depriving Ukraine of any solid security guarantees.

For these reasons, Ukraine is unlikely to be excited about Trump’s approach as it essentially means affirming Russia’s victory instead of arriving at a middle ground or a settlement that’s favourable to Ukraine.

Trump’s approach violates longstanding US assurances

Since 1990s, the United States has been treaty-bound to support Ukraine in the face of any external aggression.

Trump’s approach to stop or curtail the support to Ukraine against the Russian invasion would mean the United States is in violation of its treaty obligations.

In 1994, Ukraine signed the ‘Budapest Memorandum’ with Russia, the United States, and United Kingdom. Under the pact, in exchange of nuclear disarmament of Ukraine, the signatories assured it that no nation would use force against it and if anyone did, they would initiate immediate aid and offer help via the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).

Moreover, Trump’s approach involves Ukraine significantly ceding territory to Ukraine, which would be in violation of the Budapest pact as the pact recognised Ukraine’s boundaries and sovereignty.

Both Russia & Europe to be miffed with Trump’s plan

Even though Trump’s approach favours Russia, the possibility of Trump ramping up aid to Ukraine if Russia does not agree to his terms is bound to leave it miffed.

However, such a possibility is unlikely owing to the longstanding friendly relationship between Trump and Russia and his fawning approach to Putin.

Beside Europe, the most dissatisfied bloc with Trump would be Europe. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has plunged the continent in the worst security crisis since the World War II. At a time when it needs most support, Trump is essentially paving the way for adversary’s victory.

Amid such a scenario, Nato chief Mark Rutte has warned Trump that not just Europe but the United States would also face “dire threats” if Ukraine is made to accept Russia’s terms in any settlement.

“We cannot have a situation where we have [North Korean leader] Kim Jong Un and the Russian leader and Xi Jinping and Iran high-fiving because we came to a deal which is not good for Ukraine, because long-term that will be a dire security threat not only to Europe but also to the US,” Rutte said he told Trump in an interview with Financial Times.

Rutte further flagged that victory of Russia would embolden its allies China, North Korea, and Iran in their respective theatres of Indo-Pacific and West Asia.

Rutte said he told Trump: “Look at the missile technology which is now being sent from Russia into North Korea, which is posing a dire threat not only to South Korea, Japan, but also to the US mainland. Iran is getting money from Russia in return for, for example, missiles, but also drone technology. And the money is being used to prop up Hezbollah and Hamas, but also steering conflict beyond the region."

Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea are working together in a way that various conflicts in the world are “more and more getting connected”, said Rutte.

“So the fact that Iran, North Korea, China and Russia are working so closely together . . . [means] these various parts of the world where conflict is, and have to be managed by politicians, are more and more getting connected,” said Rutte.